Where are all the Tesla Model 3s?

"superdave847" (superdave847) 02/02/2020 at 14:53 • Filed to: Tesla Model 3, Tesla, Elon Musk, Porsche, Porsche Taycan, bmw 3-series, audi e-tron

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I’m not arguing that there aren’t a bunch of Tesla 3s out there. But, Tesla claims it sold 371,000 between the beginning of production in 2017 through September 2019.

That’s a big number, so I think there should be some used ones for sale. But there really aren’t.

Look at these searches on Autotrader. They are nationwide for all years, all cars, and no restrictions except the model.

The Model 3 has been in production since 2017. They claimed to have sold 300,000 last year along, with 150,000 to North America.

Here are the number of cars available in the U.S.:

Here are the total number of Porsche Taycans for sale:

So where are all the Tesla 3s that investors were told have been sold?

Also, here are the results for the BMW 3 Series since 2017:

Update:

To try and get closer to an Apples to Apples, here are all the Audi e-Tron’s for sale:

Who is the Leader - 404 / Blog No Longer Available > superdave847 02/02/2020 at 15:01

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On the roads, since everyone likes them so much they aren’t selling them after 2 years.

dogisbadob > superdave847 02/02/2020 at 15:05

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They were sold then resold :p

Supposedly, there is some kind of loophole like that in Europe. Kia “sells” electric Souls new in Germany then almost immediately exports them as “used cars” to Norway, where people actualy want EV’s

There is probably something similar going on over here with Tesla. They sell them on paper but then quickly resell them.

Anoither possibility is that people dumped them after seeing how shitty they are, poor build quality, Elon’s antics, maybe shitty customer service

Future Heap Owner > superdave847 02/02/2020 at 15:05

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Here in Portland they are the new Prius; I see them everywhere. Yesterday I pulled into an Office Depot parking lot and there were two blue Model 3s out of the seven or eight cars in the lot. I’ve heard they’re even more popular in the Bay Area.

superdave847 > Future Heap Owner 02/02/2020 at 15:10

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I see them too. 

superdave847 > Who is the Leader - 404 / Blog No Longer Available 02/02/2020 at 15:10

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If that’s the case, that’s a remarkable story and probably the first time that’s happened in the history of autos.

DipodomysDeserti > superdave847 02/02/2020 at 15:13

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Can you lease a Tesla?

superdave847 > DipodomysDeserti 02/02/2020 at 15:15

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Yes. And Teslas also sells used cars. Some of the 153 on Autotrader are advertised by Tesla.

farscythe - makin da cawfee! > superdave847 02/02/2020 at 15:16

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wait untill the batteries start needing to be replaced

my guess is thats when suddenly the market will be full of them

Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo > superdave847 02/02/2020 at 15:20

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There are about 1 bajillion model 3s up here in surrounding Seattle and Bellevue. Hell, a guy four doors  down from me has one.

Conversely, I’ve seen at most two new 3-series.

Jayhawk Jake > superdave847 02/02/2020 at 15:24

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Are you filtering the Taycan to used? Same with the 3 series? And what does it look like if you took out BMW/Porsche dealers?

I doubt Tesla lists used inventory on auto trader. They definitely don’t list new there . Not really an apples to apples comparison

FTTOHG Has Moved to https://opposite-lock.com > superdave847 02/02/2020 at 15:26

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Demand is high so they transact quickly. Low number of listings doesn’t necessarily mean low sales of used ones but could mean the listings aren’t up for very long before the cars sell. Also I see lots on places other than Autotrader - I’ve seen several on CL/FB and they don’t last long. I’m guessing a lot sell over the forums too. Why pay Autotrader for a listing when the car is popular enough to sell on the free (Ok nearly free  for CL now) sites at asking price?

superdave847 > Jayhawk Jake 02/02/2020 at 15:26

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Look for yourself. No filters.

And yes, Tesla lists on Autotrader.

superdave847 > Jayhawk Jake 02/02/2020 at 15:27

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If you can think of an apples to apples comparison, I’m happy to try it.

superdave847 > Jayhawk Jake 02/02/2020 at 15:28

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Check this out:

gettingoldercarguy > superdave847 02/02/2020 at 15:37

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They are everywhere I live.  Can't swing a dead car without hitting one.

HFV has no HFV. But somehow has 2 motorcycles > superdave847 02/02/2020 at 16:03

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Isn’t it  part of Tesla’s business model to not have cars on the lot? I thought the idea with their stores was to just have a few models on display and have people order what they want? 

facw > superdave847 02/02/2020 at 16:03

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Umm, so why are you compar ing new listings? Tesla isn’t listing their new inventory on cars.com, so why would there be anywhere near as many listed?

MM54 > superdave847 02/02/2020 at 16:07

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“x cars sold” does not mean “x cars for sale”

The small number available after 3 years on the market is proof of demand. If there were 100,000 for sale it would be more indicative of problems than them being hard to find.

superdave847 > MM54 02/02/2020 at 16:09

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I didn’t say anything like that.

WilliamsSW > superdave847 02/02/2020 at 16:15

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They’re common around Chicago. The few owners I’ve talked to love them, though its not for me .

MiniGTI - now with XJ6 > superdave847 02/02/2020 at 16:51

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Don’t know but here in Chicago they’re as common as Camrys.

Tripper > superdave847 02/02/2020 at 17:30

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They’re all in my neighborhood/on my commute. 

fintail > superdave847 02/02/2020 at 18:55

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Seattle.  I can’t throw a cat without hitting a Model 3 here.

Swolerpower > superdave847 02/02/2020 at 19:43

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Tesla has done a lot of firsts in the history of autos. We install Powerwalls at our small/mid size , local company and the demand is INSANE. Like we can’t possibly keep up. 100s of inquiries in a fairly small market. I don’t completely understand it but can see the same pattern with their cars. They’re crazy to ride in, I haven’t known anyone that wants to get rid of theirs. Plus they continually update over the air with new features and improved performance, so there’s a smaller need to sell and upgrade. 

Yourmomsayshi > farscythe - makin da cawfee! 02/02/2020 at 20:01

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This comment won't age well. The pace of Tesla battery innovation is breakneck.

LowFlyr155+ > superdave847 02/02/2020 at 20:53

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They’re on my block  16 of them. 

Briggie > superdave847 02/02/2020 at 21:03

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As of December 2018 you couldn’t lease model 3's. Now you can but you can’t purchase at end of the lease. My model 3 is being driven by it’s original owner, me.   

pip bip - choose Corrour > superdave847 02/03/2020 at 02:16

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give it a year or two when they start coming off leases

Durden > superdave847 02/03/2020 at 02:26

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Uncheck new.

Hass > superdave847 02/03/2020 at 02:59

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I don’t quite understand what you’re getting at with this article (do you think Tesla is lying?) , but I’d think if there’s more used inventory for sale, that would tell me that car isn’t as popular. Model 3 being the first truly affordable Tesla, people snap up any and all used deals they can get to be a part of the Tesla movement. Other brands just don’t have what Tesla has in terms of being known as the best all ev automaker on the planet... amongst other things.

superdave847 > Swolerpower 02/03/2020 at 07:04

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“We”?

superdave847 > Hass 02/03/2020 at 07:06

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I do think Tesla is lying. Musk has had problems with the securities and exchange commission before.

Bernard > superdave847 02/03/2020 at 08:41

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You should allow smarter people to think for you. I see tons of 3's on my daily commute and I don’t even live in CA, I’m in MD and VA on the other side of the country. I can’t park at the grocery store without seeing another in the lot near by and I’m not even in the city.

Itninjawarrior > superdave847 02/03/2020 at 10:39

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Your article is written in a way that it is clear your intention is to cast doubt on the accuracy of Tesla’s claims as to the number of model 3 sales. Your research is extremely lacking, possibly bordering on flagrantly. There is no viable statistical data that says, ”because there’s not many used cars available for purchase, there must be less of those cars out on the roads.”

If this hadn’t been a blatant attempt to discredit Tesla’s sales numbers, your research would not have been based off of available used cars for sale, it would have been based on number of new/used car registrations for model 3s .

Gerry197 > superdave847 02/03/2020 at 10:46

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Tesla was gaming the system with tweets to hurt the shorts, not literally faking sales numbers.

Also, plenty of Tesla 3 are leased and most of those coming off short term leases are going through Tesla’s used car site, not Autotrader. As for private owners, maybe they are holding on to them longer for some reason? Everyone I know who owns one (quite a few) seem to love them.

Around my area, I see more Tesla model 3s than BMW 3 series.  

Sean > superdave847 02/03/2020 at 11:14

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I think there’s something wrong with you. A low number of vehicles for sale is normal, the 3 didn’t have leases to expire right away because demand was so high they were all sold. So nothing coming off the 36ers like all the other cars you listed. And then there’s the fact that owners of Tesla’s tend to hold onto them longer then they did the BMWs they literally traded in. Do like 5 minutes of research before you post this trash.

Jayhawk Jake > superdave847 02/03/2020 at 13:17

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I see no Tesla store listings on Autotrader. I think Tesla lists new inventory in stock on their website, but they generally seem to be focused on built to order.

That’s what I’m saying - when you go to Autotrader, Joe’s BMW down the street from you is going to list all of the cars they have in stock. But the Tesla Company Store next door isn’t. So naturally more cars will be listed. Also, not having used cars available for sale doesn’t mean the cars themselves don’t exist. It could just be that people aren’t getting rid of what they have like they do with the traditional brands.

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > superdave847 02/03/2020 at 16:32

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Impossible. I know for a fact they only cost $35,000.

Because Elon said.

BaconSandwich is tasty. > superdave847 02/03/2020 at 17:38

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Given the username, I think he works for a solar installer.

Drdeb > superdave847 02/03/2020 at 19:41

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Honey The numbers come from registrations that are filed in each state as well as countries in Europe. It's not something that can be made up. Perhaps you're not seeing many of them for sale because people love them and don't want to get rid of them have you thought of that?

superdave847 > Drdeb 02/03/2020 at 22:06

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False.

The numbers are from VINs created by Tesla.

Try again.

Random_tech_guy > superdave847 02/03/2020 at 22:21

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As a journalist you really didn’t do much research into the topic.

Teala m3's sold like crazy. They are everywhere around me near DC, myself included (sure, biased).

I’ve owned a lot of really nice cars. Nothing has ever compared to this car, I can’t get enough of it. The OTA updates make my car better overnight, never getting gas is amazing, speed is unreal, and reliability has been pretty fantastic. People just got them, most aren’t going to sell them yet. Maybe in a few years after lease or when they go for a bigger battery model.

Also, made to order. None of that dealer bullshit where they make 1000 cars and spam them everywhere.. apparently  obnoxiously on auto trader.

Lastly, use c ars.com . You’ll find more there, because nobody honestly looking for a vehicle uses auto trader.

superdave847 > Random_tech_guy 02/03/2020 at 23:05

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Not a journalist.

farscythe - makin da cawfee! > Yourmomsayshi 02/03/2020 at 23:50

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wich is great for newer teslas coming out with newer batteries

but the current ones are still going to need replacing sooner or later

(eta) would have replied yesterday..but kinja wouldnt let me

RTPEV > superdave847 02/05/2020 at 15:55

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Yes, that is in fact what is happening. Tesla Model 3's are incredibly popular with their owners. You can tell this by simply looking at the selling prices of the used cars you find on there and comparing them to their original MSRP’s, versus other similar used cars that show up in higher numbers. Model 3's are retaining most of their value after 2 years because of a lack of supply. 2018 BMW 3-series vehicles, on the other hand, follow a more typical vehicle depreciation rate because they come onto the market in more typical numbers. That explains why you aren’t seeing large numbers of used Model 3's on those sites.

The reason you aren’t seeing large numbers of NEW Model 3's on those sites is that Tesla’s model is to run very lean in terms of inventory. There are no Tesla dealers, and Tesla sales and delivery centers don’t typically have acres of unsold inventory. With Tesla they basically build to order. That means that Tesla doesn’t have to list 100 new Model 3's for sale in every metro area. In fact, they don’t have to list any. So you aren’t going to see them on these sites.

Sorry to disappoint, but there is no conspiracy. Tesla is not lying about those numbers. Those sales numbers are real. There are just other reasons that you hadn’t considered for why you are not seeing large numbers of listings on those sites.

Now once the Model Y starts shipping, I think you will see more used Model 3 inventory showing up on those sites, as owners that really wanted an SUV form factor start trading in their old 3's for the Y.  But until then (maybe 6-9 months from now) I think they will still be in limited numbers.